XAUUSD Analysis

Introduction

XAU/USD represents the price of gold measured against the US Dollar and is one of the most widely followed commodities in the world. Gold is viewed as a safe-haven asset, and its price tends to rise during periods of economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, or financial crises. The price of gold is inversely correlated with the strength of the US Dollar, as a weaker dollar generally makes gold cheaper for foreign investors. Key drivers of gold prices include inflation expectations, real interest rates, central bank policies (especially the Federal Reserve), and global economic and geopolitical events. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation and a store of value during market volatility.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The policy is with the current Interest rate 0%. Latest change was 0%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 3.75% by latest change, Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of XAU is Weak Bullish and for the USD is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases. and Fundamental Score for USD is -11. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-OFF. The Gold and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the New Zealand Dollar and Australian dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.27% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.01% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.09% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.22%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.31%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.01% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.03% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.04%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

XAU COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Gold is 204588 included 253266 long, 48678 short and -5751 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought XAU for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -5751 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -16347 included 18448 long, 34795 short and -239 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -239 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the XAUUSD with 61% 39% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability XAUUSD prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The XAUUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 4256.22.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 4379.21. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.