EURJPY Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/JPY is a popular cross-currency pair that reflects the economic relationship between the Eurozone and Japan. It is influenced by the economic health of both regions, with the Eurozone’s economic growth and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy being key drivers. The EUR/JPY tends to appreciate when there is an overall risk-on sentiment in global markets, as investors seek higher yields in the Eurozone.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.4%. Latest change was Jun 11, 2026 (25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 1% by latest change, Jun 16, 2026 (25bp).
(ECB) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in EUR. This tends to attract foreign capital into EUR assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Moderate Bullish and for the JPY is Weak Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 12. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 8. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney", Market risk sentiment is Risk-OFF. The Gold and British pound recorded the strongest performance, while the New Zealand Dollar and EUR are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 1.07% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.31% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.28% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.02%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.38%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.08% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.08% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.09%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 34353 included 228005 long, 193652 short and 20421 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 20421 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is -150132 included 117375 long, 267507 short and -4314 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold JPY for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -4314 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURJPY with 79% 21% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURJPY prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 183.722.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 186.061. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.