EURJPY Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/JPY is a popular cross-currency pair that reflects the economic relationship between the Eurozone and Japan. It is influenced by the economic health of both regions, with the Eurozone’s economic growth and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy being key drivers. The EUR/JPY tends to appreciate when there is an overall risk-on sentiment in global markets, as investors seek higher yields in the Eurozone.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.5% by latest change, Jan 24, 2025 (25bp).
(ECB) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in EUR. This tends to attract foreign capital into EUR assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Weak Bullish and for the JPY is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 6. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 10. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-OFF. The Gold and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the New Zealand Dollar and Australian dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.27% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.01% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.09% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.22%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.31%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.01% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.03% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.04%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 94071 included 244392 long, 150321 short and -4936 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -4936 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is 26517 included 169218 long, 142701 short and -4640 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought JPY for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -4640 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURJPY with 18% 82% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURJPY prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 181.682.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 183.152. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.