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  • Interest Rate2.4
  • Inflation Rate MoM0.6
  • Inflation Expectations2.6
  • Retail Sales MoM0.3
  • GDP Growth Rate0
  • GDP m/m
  • Manufacturing PMI48.7
  • Services PMI 49.7
  • Unemployment Rate6.1
  • 4.5Interest Rate
  • 0Inflation Rate MoM
  • 3.6Inflation Expectations
  • 1.4Retail Sales MoM
  • 2.4GDP Growth Rate
  • GDP m/m
  • 50.2Manufacturing PMI
  • 54.4Services PMI
  • 4.2Unemployment Rate

Day Trading

Short Term/Scalp Opportunity

Waiting for confirmations

Swing Trading

Long Term Opportunity


Long at major support areas.
✅ Fundamental Bias is Bullish  
✅ Forecast is Bullish  
✅ Trend is SELL
Dynamic supports at S3 (1.12539) and S4 (1.12539) could be apropos entries

Market Risk Sentiment
Intraday performance
Last update: 2025-04-23 14:24
Intraday performance - Session history
Last update: 2025-04-23 14:24
Technical Data:
R1: S1:
R2: S2:
R3: S3:
R4: S4:

Daily:

H1:

M30:

M5:

Signal

Buy

Sell

Over Sold

Sell

waiting...

0 %
Pivot Points

Pivot: 1.14606

S1: 1.13744

S2: 1.13308

S3: 1.12446

R1: 1.15042

R2: 1.15904

R3: 1.16340

Retail traders Money flow: Last update: 2025-04-23 14:30

EURUSD, Retail traders Sentiment

EURUSD, Retails Liquidity history

Commitments of Traders (COT): latest CFTC report: 2025-04-15

>Euro

Net Positions:

Previous 59,980

Current 69,280

Changes +9300 16%

>U.S. Dollar Index

Net Positions:

Previous 2,913

Current 1,828

Changes -1085 -37%
NET Change History EUR
NET Change History USD
Large Speculators vs price history (Hot money Tracking)
AI Forecast
Forecast:

Licensed User access

0%
0%
Base: EUR

Interest rate: 2.4%

Germany 10Y Bonds: 2.511 , chg: 0.069 (2.830%)

Italy Bonds, Italy 10: 3.633 , chg: 0.020 (2.830%)

 

Fundamental Bias: Bullish Weak

Fundamental Score: 3

COT POS: EUR: 69280 pos, last change: 16% (9300 contracts)

Retail Short pos ratio: 63%

Retail trader Sell position: 43754

Retail trader Sell volume: 13277.75 lots lot

Distance to Resistance R4 (1.16634): 0.03041

Quote: USD

Interest rate: 4.5%

Bonds, U.S. 10Y: 4.329 , chg: -0.060 (-1.370%)

 

 

Fundamental Bias: Bearish Moderate

Fundamental Score: -3

COT POS: USD: 1828 pos, last change: -37% (-1085 contracts)

Retail Long pos ratio: 37%

Retail trader Long position: 29093

Retail trader Buy volume: 7952.60 lots lot

Distance to Support S4 (1.12539): 0.01054

Fundamental Bias:

Bullish Weak

European Central Bank (ECB) rate: 2.4%

Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Apr 17, 2025 (-25bp)


Bearish Moderate

Federal Reserve (FED) rate: 4.5%

Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp)

EUR Calendar
USD Calendar

Economic compare

  • Interest Rate2.4
  • CPI y/y2.2
  • Inflation Rate MoM0.6
  • Producer Prices Change3
  • Core Inflation Rate MoM1
  • Consumer Price Index CPI128
  • Inflation Expectations2.6
  • Retail Sales MoM0.3
  • Core Producer Prices MoM
  • GDP Growth Rate0
  • GDP m/m
  • Manufacturing PMI48.7
  • Services PMI 49.7
  • Non Manufacturing PMI
  • Unemployment Rate6.1
  • Employment Rate70.6
  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Non Farm Payrolls
  • Average Hourly Earnings
  • ADP Employment Change
  • Balance of Trade1033
  • Consumer Confidence0
  • Government Bond 10Y
  • TOTAL SCORE2
  • 4.5Interest Rate
  • 2.4CPI y/y
  • 0Inflation Rate MoM
  • 2.7Producer Prices Change
  • 0.1Core Inflation Rate MoM
  • 320Consumer Price Index CPI
  • 3.6Inflation Expectations
  • 1.4Retail Sales MoM
  • 0Core Producer Prices MoM
  • 2.4GDP Growth Rate
  • GDP m/m
  • 50.2Manufacturing PMI
  • 54.4Services PMI
  • 50.8Non Manufacturing PMI
  • 4.2Unemployment Rate
  • 59.9Employment Rate
  • 215Initial Jobless Claims
  • 228Non Farm Payrolls
  • 0.3Average Hourly Earnings
  • 155ADP Employment Change
  • 0Balance of Trade
  • 50.8Consumer Confidence
  • Government Bond 10Y
  • -1TOTAL SCORE
EURUSD:

According to economic data, the base currency is outperforming the quote currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to buy the pair. This positive outlook, driven by the base currency's strength versus the quote currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of buying activity to profit from this divergence.

Bullish points

Bullish points

Bearish points

  • Dovish Monetary Policy

Bearish points

  • Dovish Monetary Policy
News
Euro (EUR)

The Euro (EUR) is the official currency of the Eurozone, consisting of 19 of the 27 European Union (EU) member countries. It is the second most traded currency in the world and serves as a symbol of European economic integration. The Euro was introduced in 1999, and its value is influenced by the economic stability of the Eurozone. Key points include its central role in global trade and finance, with the European Central Bank (ECB) being responsible for its monetary policy. The Euro often shows strong correlations with the USD and commodity prices due to the economic dynamics of Europe and the global trade market. The Euro’s price is driven by factors such as GDP growth, inflation rates, political stability within the EU, and interest rates set by the ECB. In times of geopolitical instability, the Euro may weaken, while a stable economic outlook in the Eurozone can lead to strengthening.

United States Dollar

The US Dollar (USD) is the most widely traded currency in the world and the primary reserve currency. It is the official currency of the United States and is often seen as the global standard for trade and investment. The USD’s price is influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, and interest rates. Its dominance in global trade makes it highly correlated with other major currencies, especially the Euro and Japanese Yen. Key impact parameters for the USD include US economic growth (GDP), job market conditions, consumer spending, and the Fed’s policy decisions. As a safe-haven currency, the USD often rises during periods of global risk aversion. Its price is also sensitive to geopolitical events, such as US government policy changes and international conflicts.

EURUSD Analysis EURUSD Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world. It represents the relationship between the Euro and the US Dollar. The price of this pair is heavily influenced by interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), as well as economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment, and inflation in the Eurozone and the US. Key correlations include its inverse relationship with commodity prices, especially crude oil, and its sensitivity to global risk sentiment. The EUR/USD often acts as a benchmark for other currency pairs.


Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.4%. Latest change was Apr 17, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 4.5% by latest change, Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Weak Bullish and for the USD is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 3. and Fundamental Score for USD is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-ON. The Australian dollar and New Zealand Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -3.08% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.56% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.38% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.83%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.37%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.6% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.82% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.27%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.


Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 69280 included 197103 long, 127823 short and 9300 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 9300 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.


USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is 1828 included 15722 long, 13894 short and -1085 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought USD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -1085 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.


Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURUSD with 37% 63% ratio. 29093 long pos and 43754 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURUSD prices may continue to rise.


Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.12539.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.16634. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.

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Risk Disclaimer
  Please note that trade offers are intended solely for educational purposes

Our forecasts, signals, and trade opportunities are provided to help you stay informed, but we do not take responsibility for any potential losses.
Additionally, we do not offer financial or investment advice in this section of the website.

Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.

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