
- GDP Annual Growth Rate1.4
- Unemployment Rate4.4
- Inflation Rate MoM0.3
- Consumer Price Index CPI136
- Producer Prices Change0.1
- Core Inflation Rate MoM0.3
- Inflation Expectations3.5
- Interest Rate4.5
- Manufacturing PMI48.3
- Services PMI50.8
- Retail Sales MoM0

- GDP Annual Growth Rate0.5
- Unemployment Rate2.4
- Inflation Rate MoM0.6
- Consumer Price Index CPI111
- Inflation Expectations2.4
- Producer Prices Change4.2
- Interest Rate0.5
- Manufacturing PMI48.7
- Services PMI53
- Retail Sales MoM0
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Wait for the conformations
The British Pound (GBP), the official currency of the United Kingdom, is one of the oldest currencies still in use. The Pound is the fourth most traded currency globally, and its value is heavily influenced by the economic health of the UK. Important price drivers for GBP include the monetary policy of the Bank of England (BoE), inflation, unemployment rates, and political events, including those related to Brexit. The GBP is highly correlated with the EUR and USD, often moving in similar patterns in relation to global economic events. The pound tends to strengthen when the UK economy shows signs of growth and political stability, while it weakens amid uncertainty or economic downturns. The GBP's price is also impacted by trade relations, especially those involving the EU and major global partners.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is the official currency of Japan and is one of the most traded currencies worldwide. Known for its stability, the JPY is often seen as a safe-haven currency in times of global uncertainty. The value of the Yen is closely tied to Japan’s economic performance, particularly its export market, and monetary policy set by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The JPY often has an inverse relationship with the USD and Euro, strengthening during periods of market risk aversion. Important factors influencing the JPY include Japan’s GDP growth, inflation, and trade balance, with a focus on export-driven industries such as automotive and electronics. The Yen can also be impacted by geopolitical tensions, particularly in East Asia, and by changes in US interest rates.
GBPJPY Analysis
Introduction
The GBP/JPY is known for its volatility, driven by both the UK and Japan’s economic data and central bank policies. It is influenced by global risk sentiment, as both the British Pound and the Japanese Yen are significantly affected by market confidence. The pair is particularly sensitive to geopolitical events in the UK (e.g., Brexit) and monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The Bank of England policy is Dovish with the (BOE) current Interest rate 4.5%. Latest change was Feb 06, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.5% by latest change, Jan 24, 2025 (25bp).
(BOE) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in GBP. This tends to attract foreign capital into GBP assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of GBP is Moderate Bearish and for the JPY is Moderate Bullish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for GBP is 4. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 5. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The Gold and United States Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Canadian Dollar and Australian dollar are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.07% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.05% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.06% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.1%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.08%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.03% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.09% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.14%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.Due to the market risk sentiment, GBPJPY price reduction is likely. Becasue investors become risk-averse from GBP, seeking safety amid uncertainty or market turmoil, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets and a flight to safe havens like the USD, JPY, and gold. Currencies tied to riskier economies (e.g., AUD, NZD) tend to weaken.
Market Sentiment and Positioning
GBP COT (Commitment of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >British Pound is -3168 included 69087 long, 72255 short and 8155 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold GBP for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 8155 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.
JPY COT (Commitment of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is 54615 included 144158 long, 89543 short and 35847 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought JPY for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 35847 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.
Retail Traders:
Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the GBPJPY with 25% 75% ratio. 2377 long pos and 2777 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability GBPJPY prices may continue to rise.
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
The GBPJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 189.648.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 194.571. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.
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