EURGBP Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/GBP reflects the economic relationship between the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. This pair is influenced by economic data from both regions, including GDP, inflation, and employment figures. The Bank of England’s and European Central Bank’s interest rate policies play significant roles in driving the pair’s movements. Brexit-related news and the economic outlook for the UK significantly impact the EUR/GBP.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of England policy is Dovish and (BOE) has set its interest rate to 4% by latest change, Aug 07, 2025 (-25bp).
(BOE) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in GBP. This tends to attract foreign capital into GBP assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Weak Bullish and for the GBP is Weak Bullish.
Ziwox considering Neutral bias for this asset and we predict side movement in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 6. and Fundamental Score for GBP is -9. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term upside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-OFF. The Gold and Switzerland Frank recorded the strongest performance, while the New Zealand Dollar and Australian dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.27% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.01% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.09% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.22%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.31%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.01% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.03% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.04%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 94071 included 244392 long, 150321 short and -4936 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -4936 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

GBP COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >British Pound is -93221 included 45257 long, 138478 short and -13964 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold GBP for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -13964 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURGBP pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.87281.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.88280. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.