NZDJPY Analysis

Introduction

The NZD/JPY is another cross-currency pair that reflects both risk sentiment and global commodity prices. The New Zealand Dollar’s correlation with global commodity exports makes it sensitive to market cycles, while the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven status means it appreciates during risk-off periods. This pair moves in response to global risk appetite and economic data from New Zealand and Japan.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy is Dovish with the (RBNZ) current Interest rate 2.25%. Latest change was Nov 26, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 0.5% by latest change, Jan 24, 2025 (25bp).
(RBNZ) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in NZD. This tends to attract foreign capital into NZD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of NZD is -- Neutral and for the JPY is -- Neutral.
Ziwox considering Neutral bias for this asset and we predict side movement in the long-term.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for NZD is 5. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 10. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "New York", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-ON. The Canadian Dollar and Australian dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Yen are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.2% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.01% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.06% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.53%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.26%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.13% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.12% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 1.03%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.Due to the market risk sentiment, NZDJPY price increase is likely. Becasue investors are optimistic and willing to take higher risk on NZD and leading to increased demand for riskier assets like stocks, commodities, and higher-yielding currencies. Safe-haven assets like the USD, JPY, and gold typically weaken as confidence grows.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

NZD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Newseeland Dollar is -34966 included 24330 long, 59296 short and 1309 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold NZD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 1309 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is 68115 included 178745 long, 110630 short and -2299 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought JPY for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -2299 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the NZDJPY with 23% 77% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability NZDJPY prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The NZDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 88.454.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 90.491. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.