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- Interest Rate2.15
- Inflation Rate MoM0.3
- Inflation Expectations2.8
- Retail Sales MoM0
- GDP Growth Rate0.6
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI49.5
- Services PMI 50.5
- Unemployment Rate6.3
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- 0Interest Rate
- 0.2Inflation Rate MoM
- 0.75Inflation Expectations
- 0Retail Sales MoM
- 0.5GDP Growth Rate
- GDP m/m
- 49.6Manufacturing PMI
- 48.5Services PMI
- 2.7Unemployment Rate
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Long at major support areas.
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Fundamental Bias is Bullish
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Forecast is Bearish
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Trend is Buy
Dynamic supports at S3 (0.92825) and S4 (0.92825) could be apropos entries
The Euro (EUR) is the official currency of the Eurozone, consisting of 19 of the 27 European Union (EU) member countries. It is the second most traded currency in the world and serves as a symbol of European economic integration. The Euro was introduced in 1999, and its value is influenced by the economic stability of the Eurozone. Key points include its central role in global trade and finance, with the European Central Bank (ECB) being responsible for its monetary policy. The Euro often shows strong correlations with the USD and commodity prices due to the economic dynamics of Europe and the global trade market. The Euro’s price is driven by factors such as GDP growth, inflation rates, political stability within the EU, and interest rates set by the ECB. In times of geopolitical instability, the Euro may weaken, while a stable economic outlook in the Eurozone can lead to strengthening.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is the official currency of Switzerland and is considered one of the safest currencies in the world. Due to Switzerland’s political stability, strong banking system, and solid economic foundation, the CHF is viewed as a safe-haven currency, often strengthening during periods of geopolitical instability or financial crisis. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is responsible for setting the country’s monetary policy. The price of the CHF is influenced by factors such as interest rates, inflation, and the country's trade balance. Additionally, the Franc tends to correlate with global risk sentiment, appreciating when investors seek safety in times of market turbulence. The CHF also sees price movements in relation to the Euro, given Switzerland's proximity to the Eurozone.
EURCHF Analysis
Introduction
The EUR/CHF is often influenced by the monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The Swiss Franc is considered a safe-haven currency, and the pair can be volatile during periods of European financial uncertainty or when there are concerns about the Eurozone’s economic stability.
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish and (SNB) has set its interest rate to 0% by latest change, Jun 19, 2025 (-25bp).
(ECB) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in EUR. This tends to attract foreign capital into EUR assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Moderate Bullish and for the CHF is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is -4. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "London", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-ON. The Australian dollar and New Zealand Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Yen are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.41% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.1% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.24% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.7%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.27%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.38% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.06% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.12%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.
Market Sentiment and Positioning
EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 107537 included 224979 long, 117442 short and -3598 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -3598 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.
CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -23853 included 7100 long, 30953 short and -2909 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -2909 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.
Retail Traders:
Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURCHF with 64% 36% ratio. 3573 long pos and 1833 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURCHF prices may decrease.
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
The EURCHF pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.92825.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.94102. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.
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