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  • Interest Rate2.15
  • Inflation Rate MoM0.3
  • Inflation Expectations2.8
  • Retail Sales MoM0
  • GDP Growth Rate0.6
  • GDP m/m
  • Manufacturing PMI49.5
  • Services PMI 50.5
  • Unemployment Rate6.3
  • 0Interest Rate
  • 0.2Inflation Rate MoM
  • 0.75Inflation Expectations
  • 0Retail Sales MoM
  • 0.5GDP Growth Rate
  • GDP m/m
  • 49.6Manufacturing PMI
  • 48.5Services PMI
  • 2.7Unemployment Rate

Day Trading

Short Term/Scalp Opportunity

Waiting for confirmations

Swing Trading

Long Term Opportunity


Long at major support areas.
✅ Fundamental Bias is Bullish  
✅ Forecast is Bearish  
✅ Trend is Buy
Dynamic supports at S3 (0.92825) and S4 (0.92825) could be apropos entries

Market Risk Sentiment
ADS
ADS
Intraday performance
Last update: 2025-07-08 11:47
Intraday performance - Session history
Last update: 2025-07-08 11:47
Technical Data:
R1: S1:
R2: S2:
R3: S3:
R4: S4:

Daily:

H1:

M30:

M5:

Signal

Sell

Buy

Sell

Buy

waiting...

-20 %
Pivot Points

Pivot: 0.93440

S1: 0.93293

S2: 0.93195

S3: 0.93048

R1: 0.93538

R2: 0.93685

R3: 0.93783

Retail traders Money flow: Last update: 2025-07-08 11:30

EURCHF, Retail traders Sentiment

EURCHF, Retails Liquidity history

Commitments of Traders (COT): latest CFTC report: 2025-07-01

>Euro

Net Positions:

Previous 111,135

Current 107,537

Changes -3598 -3%

>Swiss Franc

Net Positions:

Previous -20,944

Current -23,853

Changes -2909 -14%
NET Change History EUR
NET Change History CHF
Large Speculators vs price history (Hot money Tracking)
AI forecast
Forecast:

Licensed User access

0%
0%
Base: EUR

Interest rate: 2.15%

Germany 10Y Bonds: 2.653 , chg: 0.046 (1.760%)

Italy Bonds, Italy 10: 3.565 , chg: 0.044 (1.760%)

 

Fundamental Bias: Bullish Moderate

Fundamental Score: -4

COT POS: EUR: 107537 pos, last change: -3% (-3598 contracts)

Retail Short pos ratio: 36%

Retail trader Sell position: 1833

Retail trader Sell volume: 300.24 lots lot

Distance to Resistance R4 (0.94102): 0.00555

Quote: CHF

Bonds, Switzerland 10Y: 0.468 , chg: 0.026 (5.880%)

 

 

Fundamental Bias: Bearish Moderate

Fundamental Score: 0

COT POS: CHF: -23853 pos, last change: -14% (-2909 contracts)

Retail Long pos ratio: 64%

Retail trader Long position: 3573

Retail trader Buy volume: 539.64 lots lot

Distance to Support S4 (0.92825): 0.00722

Fundamental Bias:

Bullish Moderate

European Central Bank (ECB) rate: 2.15%

Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)


Bearish Moderate

Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate: 0%

Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Jun 19, 2025 (-25bp)

EUR Calendar
CHF Calendar

Economic compare

  • Interest Rate2.15
  • CPI y/y2
  • Inflation Rate MoM0.3
  • Producer Prices Change0.3
  • Core Inflation Rate MoM0
  • Consumer Price Index CPI129
  • Inflation Expectations2.8
  • Retail Sales MoM0
  • Core Producer Prices MoM
  • GDP Growth Rate0.6
  • GDP m/m
  • Manufacturing PMI49.5
  • Services PMI 50.5
  • Non Manufacturing PMI
  • Unemployment Rate6.3
  • Employment Rate70.4
  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Non Farm Payrolls
  • Average Hourly Earnings
  • ADP Employment Change
  • Balance of Trade9910
  • Consumer Confidence0
  • Government Bond 10Y
  • TOTAL SCORE-2
  • 0Interest Rate
  • 0.1CPI y/y
  • 0.2Inflation Rate MoM
  • 0Producer Prices Change
  • Core Inflation Rate MoM
  • 108Consumer Price Index CPI
  • 0.75Inflation Expectations
  • 0Retail Sales MoM
  • Core Producer Prices MoM
  • 0.5GDP Growth Rate
  • GDP m/m
  • 49.6Manufacturing PMI
  • 48.5Services PMI
  • Non Manufacturing PMI
  • 2.7Unemployment Rate
  • 79.8Employment Rate
  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • 5512Non Farm Payrolls
  • Average Hourly Earnings
  • ADP Employment Change
  • 1982Balance of Trade
  • 0Consumer Confidence
  • Government Bond 10Y
  • 1TOTAL SCORE
EURCHF:

According to economic data, the quote currency is outperforming the base currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to sell the pair. This pessimism outlook, driven by the quote currency's strength versus the base currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of selling activity to profit from this divergence.

Bullish points

Bullish points

Bearish points

  • Dovish Monetary Policy

Bearish points

  • Dovish Monetary Policy
News
Euro (EUR)

The Euro (EUR) is the official currency of the Eurozone, consisting of 19 of the 27 European Union (EU) member countries. It is the second most traded currency in the world and serves as a symbol of European economic integration. The Euro was introduced in 1999, and its value is influenced by the economic stability of the Eurozone. Key points include its central role in global trade and finance, with the European Central Bank (ECB) being responsible for its monetary policy. The Euro often shows strong correlations with the USD and commodity prices due to the economic dynamics of Europe and the global trade market. The Euro’s price is driven by factors such as GDP growth, inflation rates, political stability within the EU, and interest rates set by the ECB. In times of geopolitical instability, the Euro may weaken, while a stable economic outlook in the Eurozone can lead to strengthening.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is the official currency of Switzerland and is considered one of the safest currencies in the world. Due to Switzerland’s political stability, strong banking system, and solid economic foundation, the CHF is viewed as a safe-haven currency, often strengthening during periods of geopolitical instability or financial crisis. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is responsible for setting the country’s monetary policy. The price of the CHF is influenced by factors such as interest rates, inflation, and the country's trade balance. Additionally, the Franc tends to correlate with global risk sentiment, appreciating when investors seek safety in times of market turbulence. The CHF also sees price movements in relation to the Euro, given Switzerland's proximity to the Eurozone.

EURCHF Analysis EURCHF Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/CHF is often influenced by the monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The Swiss Franc is considered a safe-haven currency, and the pair can be volatile during periods of European financial uncertainty or when there are concerns about the Eurozone’s economic stability.


Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.15%. Latest change was Jun 05, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish and (SNB) has set its interest rate to 0% by latest change, Jun 19, 2025 (-25bp).
(ECB) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in EUR. This tends to attract foreign capital into EUR assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Moderate Bullish and for the CHF is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is -4. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-ON. The Australian dollar and New Zealand Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Yen are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.41% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.1% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.24% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.7%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.27%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.38% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.06% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.12%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.


Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 107537 included 224979 long, 117442 short and -3598 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -3598 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.


CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -23853 included 7100 long, 30953 short and -2909 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -2909 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.


Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURCHF with 64% 36% ratio. 3573 long pos and 1833 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURCHF prices may decrease.


Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURCHF pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.92825.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.94102. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.

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Risk Disclaimer
  Please note that trade offers are intended solely for educational purposes

Our forecasts, signals, and trade opportunities are provided to help you stay informed, but we do not take responsibility for any potential losses.
Additionally, we do not offer financial or investment advice in this section of the website.

Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.

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