EURUSD Analysis

Introduction

The EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world. It represents the relationship between the Euro and the US Dollar. The price of this pair is heavily influenced by interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), as well as economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment, and inflation in the Eurozone and the US. Key correlations include its inverse relationship with commodity prices, especially crude oil, and its sensitivity to global risk sentiment. The EUR/USD often acts as a benchmark for other currency pairs.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The European Central Bank policy is Dovish with the (ECB) current Interest rate 2.4%. Latest change was Apr 17, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 4.5% by latest change, Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of EUR is Moderate Bullish and for the USD is Weak Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for EUR is 1. and Fundamental Score for USD is 2. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Gold and Australian dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the United States Dollar and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.89% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.29% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.23% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.38%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.28%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.32% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.22% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.25%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

EUR COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Euro is 84774 included 209549 long, 124775 short and 9055 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought EUR for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 9055 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -615 included 15539 long, 16154 short and 493 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 493 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the EURUSD with 34% 66% ratio. 32020 long pos and 41649 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability EURUSD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The EURUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.12006.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.14171. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.