-
- Interest Rate4
- Inflation Rate MoM0.3
- Inflation Expectations3.4
- Retail Sales MoM0.6
- GDP Growth Rate3.8
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI52.5
- Services PMI 54.8
- Unemployment Rate4.3
-
- 2.25Interest Rate
- 0.1Inflation Rate MoM
- 4Inflation Expectations
- 0Retail Sales MoM
- 0GDP Growth Rate
- 0.1GDP m/m
- 49.6Manufacturing PMI
- 50.5Services PMI
- 7.1Unemployment Rate
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Long at major support areas.
✅
Fundamental Bias is Bullish
✅
Forecast is Bullish
✅
Trend is Buy
Dynamic supports at S3 (1.40325) and S4 (1.40325) could be apropos entries
- 2025-11-07 18:38 UTCRISK-OFF: Investors become risk-averse, favoring safer assets during uncertain or negative market conditions
Risk-ON: Investors are willing to take risks, often seen during positive market sentiment. They may invest in higher-risk assets
MIX: Risky/Safe assets trades together
| R1: | S1: | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| R2: | S2: | ||
| R3: | S3: | ||
| R4: | S4: |
Daily:
H1:
M30:
M5:
Signal
Over Bought
Over Sold
Sell
Sell
waiting...
Pivot Points
Pivot: 1.41150
S1: 1.40903
S2: 1.40651
S3: 1.40404
R1: 1.41402
R2: 1.41649
R3: 1.41901
USDCAD, Retail traders Sentiment
USDCAD, Retails Liquidity history
>U.S. Dollar Index
Net Positions:
Previous -12,894
Current -10,344
Changes +2550 20%>Canadian Dollar
Net Positions:
Previous -107,177
Current -114,806
Changes -7629 -7%
Licensed User access
Base: USD
Interest rate: 4%
U.S. 10Y Bonds: 4.072 , chg: -0.021 (-0.510%)
Fundamental Bias: Neutral --
Fundamental Score: -6
COT POS: USD: -10344 pos, last change: 20% (2550 contracts)
Retail Short pos ratio: 74%
Retail trader Sell position: 8217
Retail trader Sell volume: 2322.40 lots lot
Distance to Resistance R4 (1.41481): 0.00928
Quote: CAD
Interest rate: 2.25%
Bonds, Canada 10Y: 3.158 , chg: 0.052 (1.670%)
Fundamental Bias: Bearish Weak
Fundamental Score: 1
COT POS: CAD: -114806 pos, last change: -7% (-7629 contracts)
Retail Long pos ratio: 26%
Retail trader Long position: 3264
Retail trader Buy volume: 802.80 lots lot
Distance to Support S4 (1.40325): 0.00228
Forecast by Ziwox AI
Neutral
Federal Reserve (FED) rate: 4%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp)
Bearish Weak
Bank of Canada (BOC) rate: 2.25%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp)
Economic compare
-
- Interest Rate4
- CPI y/y3
- Inflation Rate MoM0.3
- Producer Prices Change2.6
- Core Inflation Rate MoM0.2
- Consumer Price Index CPI325
- Inflation Expectations3.4
- Retail Sales MoM0.6
- Core Producer Prices MoM0
- GDP Growth Rate3.8
- GDP m/m
- Manufacturing PMI52.5
- Services PMI 54.8
- Non Manufacturing PMI52.4
- Unemployment Rate4.3
- Employment Rate59.6
- Initial Jobless Claims218
- Non Farm Payrolls22
- Average Hourly Earnings0.3
- ADP Employment Change42
- Balance of Trade0
- Consumer Confidence53.6
- Government Bond 10Y
- TOTAL SCORE2
-
- 2.25Interest Rate
- 2.4CPI y/y
- 0.1Inflation Rate MoM
- 5.5Producer Prices Change
- 0.2Core Inflation Rate MoM
- 165Consumer Price Index CPI
- 4Inflation Expectations
- 0Retail Sales MoM
- Core Producer Prices MoM
- 0GDP Growth Rate
- 0.1GDP m/m
- 49.6Manufacturing PMI
- 50.5Services PMI
- Non Manufacturing PMI
- 7.1Unemployment Rate
- 60.6Employment Rate
- Initial Jobless Claims
- 18274Non Farm Payrolls
- 36.78Average Hourly Earnings
- ADP Employment Change
- 0Balance of Trade
- 46Consumer Confidence
- Government Bond 10Y
- 4TOTAL SCORE
According to economic data, the quote currency is outperforming the base currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to sell the pair. This pessimism outlook, driven by the quote currency's strength versus the base currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of selling activity to profit from this divergence.
Bullish points
Bullish points
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
- Government shutdown.
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
The US Dollar (USD) is the most widely traded currency in the world and the primary reserve currency. It is the official currency of the United States and is often seen as the global standard for trade and investment. The USD’s price is influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, and interest rates. Its dominance in global trade makes it highly correlated with other major currencies, especially the Euro and Japanese Yen. Key impact parameters for the USD include US economic growth (GDP), job market conditions, consumer spending, and the Fed’s policy decisions. As a safe-haven currency, the USD often rises during periods of global risk aversion. Its price is also sensitive to geopolitical events, such as US government policy changes and international conflicts.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is the currency of Canada, and it is often referred to as the "Loonie" due to the loon bird depicted on the one-dollar coin. The CAD is heavily correlated with commodity prices, particularly oil, as Canada is one of the world’s largest oil exporters. The price of crude oil directly impacts the CAD’s value, making it a commodity-linked currency. The Bank of Canada (BoC) controls the monetary policy for the CAD. Other key price drivers for the CAD include interest rates, inflation data, and Canada’s trade balance. Economic growth in the US, as Canada’s primary trading partner, also affects the CAD, with stronger US demand often supporting a stronger Canadian Dollar. Fluctuations in global oil prices remain the most significant impact factor for the CAD.
USDCAD Analysis
Introduction
The USD/CAD pair is closely tied to the price of oil, as Canada is a major oil exporter. The price of crude oil often influences the CAD’s strength, with the Canadian Dollar typically appreciating when oil prices rise. The Bank of Canada (BoC) influences the currency through interest rate decisions and its economic outlook. Additionally, the USD/CAD is impacted by US economic performance and trade relations between the US and Canada.
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve policy is Dovish with the (FED) current Interest rate 4%. Latest change was Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Canada policy is Dovish and (BOC) has set its interest rate to 2.25% by latest change, Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of USD is -- Neutral and for the CAD is Weak Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for USD is -6. and Fundamental Score for CAD is 1. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "New York", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Canadian Dollar and Gold recorded the strongest performance, while the New Zealand Dollar and Yen are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.4% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.22% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.21% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.02%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.29%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.13% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.23% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.44%
Market Sentiment and Positioning
USD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -10344 included 14032 long, 24376 short and 2550 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 2550 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.
CAD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Canadian Dollar is -114806 included 18035 long, 132841 short and -7629 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CAD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -7629 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.
Retail Traders:
Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the USDCAD with 26% 74% ratio. 3264 long pos and 8217 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability USDCAD prices may continue to rise.
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
The USDCAD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 1.40325.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 1.41481. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.
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Our forecasts, signals, and trade opportunities are provided to help you stay informed, but we do not take responsibility for any potential losses.
Additionally, we do not offer financial or investment advice in this section of the website.
Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.
