-
- Interest Rate3.75
- Inflation Rate MoM0
- Inflation Expectations3.6
- Retail Sales MoM0.2
- GDP Growth Rate1.5
- Manufacturing PMI53.9
- Services PMI 54.6
- Unemployment Rate4.1
-
- 1Interest Rate
- 0.3Inflation Rate MoM
- 2.7Inflation Expectations
- 0Retail Sales MoM
- 0.5GDP Growth Rate
- 54.5Manufacturing PMI
- 51.2Services PMI
- 2.5Unemployment Rate
Day Trading
Short Term/Scalp Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
Swing Trading
Long Term Opportunity
Waiting for confirmations
- 2026-08-10 12:26 UTCRISK-OFF: Investors become risk-averse, favoring safer assets during uncertain or negative market conditions
Risk-ON: Investors are willing to take risks, often seen during positive market sentiment. They may invest in higher-risk assets
MIX: Risky/Safe assets trades together
| R1: | S1: | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| R2: | S2: | ||
| R3: | S3: | ||
| R4: | S4: |
Daily:
H1:
M30:
M5:
Signal
Over Sold
Sell
Sell
Buy
waiting...
Pivot Points
Pivot: 158.168
S1: 157.781
S2: 157.173
S3: 156.786
R1: 158.776
R2: 159.163
R3: 159.771
USDJPY, Retail traders Sentiment
USDJPY, Retails Liquidity history
>U.S. Dollar Index
Net Positions:
Previous 17,197
Current 22,499
Changes +5302 31%>Japanese Yen
Net Positions:
Previous -163,412
Current -45,473
Changes +117939 72%
Licensed User access
Base: USD
Interest rate: 3.75%
Bonds: 0 , chg: 0 (0%)
Fundamental Bias: Bullish Strong
Fundamental Score: -11
COT POS: USD: 22499 pos, last change: 31% (5302 contracts)
Retail Short pos ratio: 42%
Retail trader Sell position: 0
Retail trader Sell volume: 0 lot
Distance to Resistance R4 (161.166): 3.291
Quote: JPY
Interest rate: 1%
Bonds, : 0 , chg: 0 (0%)
Fundamental Bias: Bullish Weak
Fundamental Score: 4
COT POS: JPY: -45473 pos, last change: 72% (117939 contracts)
Retail Long pos ratio: 58%
Retail trader Long position: 0
Retail trader Buy volume: 0 lot
Distance to Support S4 (154.081): 3.794
Forecast by Ziwox AI
Bullish Strong
Federal Reserve (FED) rate: 3.75%
Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp)
Bullish Weak
Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate: 1%
Monetary Policy: Hawkish Last change: Jun 16, 2026 (25bp)
Economic compare
-
- Interest Rate3.75
- CPI y/y3.5
- Inflation Rate MoM0
- Producer Prices Change5.5
- Core Inflation Rate MoM0
- Consumer Price Index CPI334
- Inflation Expectations3.6
- Retail Sales MoM0.2
- Core Producer Prices MoM0.2
- GDP Growth Rate1.5
- Manufacturing PMI53.9
- Services PMI 54.6
- Non Manufacturing PMI54.1
- Unemployment Rate4.1
- Employment Rate58.9
- Initial Jobless Claims199
- Non Farm Payrolls0
- Average Hourly Earnings0.1
- ADP Employment Change44
- Balance of Trade0
- Consumer Confidence55.2
- TOTAL SCORE-7
-
- 1Interest Rate
- 1.7CPI y/y
- 0.3Inflation Rate MoM
- 7.1Producer Prices Change
- 114Consumer Price Index CPI
- 2.7Inflation Expectations
- 0Retail Sales MoM
- 0.5GDP Growth Rate
- 54.5Manufacturing PMI
- 51.2Services PMI
- 37Non Manufacturing PMI
- 2.5Unemployment Rate
- 62.8Employment Rate
- 0Balance of Trade
- 34.9Consumer Confidence
- 2TOTAL SCORE
According to economic data, the quote currency is outperforming the base currency due to stronger economic indicators, encouraging traders to sell the pair. This pessimism outlook, driven by the quote currency's strength versus the base currency's weakness, increases the likelihood of selling activity to profit from this divergence.
Bullish points
Bullish points
- Hawkish Monetary Policy
Bearish points
- Dovish Monetary Policy
Bearish points
The US Dollar (USD) is the most widely traded currency in the world and the primary reserve currency. It is the official currency of the United States and is often seen as the global standard for trade and investment. The USD’s price is influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, and interest rates. Its dominance in global trade makes it highly correlated with other major currencies, especially the Euro and Japanese Yen. Key impact parameters for the USD include US economic growth (GDP), job market conditions, consumer spending, and the Fed’s policy decisions. As a safe-haven currency, the USD often rises during periods of global risk aversion. Its price is also sensitive to geopolitical events, such as US government policy changes and international conflicts.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is the official currency of Japan and is one of the most traded currencies worldwide. Known for its stability, the JPY is often seen as a safe-haven currency in times of global uncertainty. The value of the Yen is closely tied to Japan’s economic performance, particularly its export market, and monetary policy set by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The JPY often has an inverse relationship with the USD and Euro, strengthening during periods of market risk aversion. Important factors influencing the JPY include Japan’s GDP growth, inflation, and trade balance, with a focus on export-driven industries such as automotive and electronics. The Yen can also be impacted by geopolitical tensions, particularly in East Asia, and by changes in US interest rates.
USDJPY Analysis
Introduction
The USD/JPY is one of the most traded pairs and is influenced by US interest rates, Japanese economic performance, and geopolitical risks in East Asia. The Japanese Yen is often viewed as a safe-haven currency, and the USD/JPY may appreciate in times of global risk appetite or vice versa. The price of the pair is impacted by Japan’s export market, including technology and automobiles. The USD/JPY tends to have an inverse correlation with gold, as investors flock to safe-haven assets.
Fundamentals and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve policy is Dovish with the (FED) current Interest rate 3.75%. Latest change was Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 1% by latest change, Jun 16, 2026 (25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.
Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of USD is Strong Bullish and for the JPY is Weak Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
mid-term Fundamental Score for USD is -11. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 4. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.
Market Overview & Performance
In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Risk-OFF. The British pound and Canadian Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Yen and Gold are weakest so far.
Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.31% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.08% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.03% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.05%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.05%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.56% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.08% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.01%
Market Sentiment and Positioning
USD COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is 22499 included 35247 long, 12748 short and 5302 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought USD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 5302 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.
JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):
Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is -45473 included 147228 long, 192701 short and 117939 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold JPY for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 117939 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.
Retail Traders:
Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the USDJPY with 58% 42% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability USDJPY prices may decrease.
Technical Levels and Support/Resistance
The USDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 154.081.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 161.166. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.
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Our forecasts, signals, and trade opportunities are provided to help you stay informed, but we do not take responsibility for any potential losses.
Additionally, we do not offer financial or investment advice in this section of the website.
Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.
