AUDUSD Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/USD is a commodity-linked currency pair, with the Australian Dollar driven by commodity exports such as iron ore, coal, and gold. The pair is sensitive to global risk sentiment, and its price typically rises when global demand for raw materials increases. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions also play a major role in the AUD/USD’s movements. Additionally, the AUD has a strong correlation with the Chinese Yuan, due to Australia's significant trade relations with China.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Hawkish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 4.1%. Latest change was Mar 17, 2026 (25bp)%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 3.75% by latest change, Dec 10, 2025 (-25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Strong Bullish and for the USD is Moderate Bullish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for AUD is 18. and Fundamental Score for USD is 26. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "New York", Market risk sentiment is Mix. The Gold and EUR recorded the strongest performance, while the United States Dollar and Canadian Dollar are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 0.4% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.29% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.17% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.29%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.26%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced 0.25% rise
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.29% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.05%

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is 64817 included 128811 long, 63994 short and -258 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought AUD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -258 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is 4983 included 17617 long, 12634 short and -187 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought USD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -187 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDUSD with 16% 84% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDUSD prices may continue to rise.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.71101.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.72344. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.