USDCHF Analysis

Introduction

The USD/CHF is another safe-haven pair, with the Swiss Franc often seen as a hedge during periods of market instability. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) plays a significant role in managing its currency’s strength. Geopolitical uncertainty, especially in Europe, often results in a stronger CHF. The pair is impacted by US economic data (interest rates, inflation) and Swiss economic stability. The USD/CHF is also correlated with gold prices, as Switzerland is a major gold trading hub.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve policy is Dovish with the (FED) current Interest rate 4%. Latest change was Oct 29, 2025 (-25bp)%.
On that side the Swiss National Bank policy is Dovish and (SNB) has set its interest rate to 0% by latest change, Jun 19, 2025 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of USD is -- Neutral and for the CHF is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases.
Our Ziwox A, mid-term Fundamental Score for USD is -6. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney & Tokyo", Market risk sentiment is Strong Risk-OFF. The United States Dollar and British pound recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.73% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.3% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.05% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.21%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.3%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.06% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.36% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.2%
Market risk sentiment is OFF, Investors seek safety, favoring safe-haven currencies and assets while selling off riskier investments.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -10344 included 14032 long, 24376 short and 2550 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold USD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 2550 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

CHF COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Swiss Franc is -23018 included 8227 long, 31245 short and 3022 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold CHF for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 3022 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the USDCHF with 63% 37% ratio. 5685 long pos and 4169 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability USDCHF prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The USDCHF pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 0.79618.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 0.80950. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.