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  • 4.5Interest Rate
  • 0Inflation Rate MoM
  • 3.6Inflation Expectations
  • 1.4Retail Sales MoM
  • 2.4GDP Growth Rate
  • GDP m/m
  • 50.2Manufacturing PMI
  • 54.4Services PMI
  • 4.2Unemployment Rate

Day Trading

Short Term/Scalp Opportunity

Waiting for confirmations

Swing Trading

Long Term Opportunity


Long at major support areas.
✅ Fundamental Bias is Bullish  
✅ Forecast is Bullish  
✅ Trend is SELL
Dynamic supports at S3 (57.499) and S4 (57.499) could be apropos entries

Market Risk Sentiment
Intraday performance
Last update: 2025-04-23 14:43
Intraday performance - Session history
Last update: 2025-04-23 14:43
Technical Data:
R1: S1:
R2: S2:
R3: S3:
R4: S4:

Daily:

H1:

M30:

M5:

Signal

Sell

Sell

Over Sold

Sell

waiting...

-80 %
Pivot Points

Pivot: 63.401

S1: 62.596

S2: 61.803

S3: 60.998

R1: 64.194

R2: 64.999

R3: 65.792

Retail traders Money flow: Last update: 2025-04-23 14:45

WTI, Retail traders Sentiment

WTI, Retails Liquidity history

Commitments of Traders (COT): latest CFTC report: 2025-04-15

>Crude Oil WTI

Net Positions:

Previous 139,595

Current 146,370

Changes +6775 5%

>U.S. Dollar Index

Net Positions:

Previous 2,913

Current 1,828

Changes -1085 -37%
NET Change History WTI
NET Change History USD
Large Speculators vs price history (Hot money Tracking)
AI Forecast
Forecast:

Licensed User access

0%
0%
Base: WTI

Bonds: 0 , chg: 0 (0%)

 

 

Fundamental Bias: Bearish Weak

Fundamental Score:

COT POS: WTI: 146370 pos, last change: 5% (6775 contracts)

Retail Short pos ratio: 0%

Retail trader Sell position: 0

Retail trader Sell volume: 0 lot

Distance to Resistance R4 (68.939): 6.397

Quote: USD

Interest rate: 4.5%

Bonds, U.S. 10Y: 4.336 , chg: -0.053 (-1.210%)

 

 

Fundamental Bias: Bearish Moderate

Fundamental Score: -3

COT POS: USD: 1828 pos, last change: -37% (-1085 contracts)

Retail Long pos ratio: 100%

Retail trader Long position: 3

Retail trader Buy volume: 3 lot

Distance to Support S4 (57.499): 5.043

Fundamental Bias:

Bearish Weak

rate: 0%

Monetary Policy: Last change: 0


Bearish Moderate

Federal Reserve (FED) rate: 4.5%

Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp)

WTI Calendar
USD Calendar

Economic compare

  • 4.5Interest Rate
  • 2.4CPI y/y
  • 0Inflation Rate MoM
  • 2.7Producer Prices Change
  • 0.1Core Inflation Rate MoM
  • 320Consumer Price Index CPI
  • 3.6Inflation Expectations
  • 1.4Retail Sales MoM
  • 0Core Producer Prices MoM
  • 2.4GDP Growth Rate
  • GDP m/m
  • 50.2Manufacturing PMI
  • 54.4Services PMI
  • 50.8Non Manufacturing PMI
  • 4.2Unemployment Rate
  • 59.9Employment Rate
  • 215Initial Jobless Claims
  • 228Non Farm Payrolls
  • 0.3Average Hourly Earnings
  • 155ADP Employment Change
  • 0Balance of Trade
  • 50.8Consumer Confidence
  • Government Bond 10Y
  • -1TOTAL SCORE
WTIUSD:

Bullish points

Bullish points

Bearish points

Bearish points

  • Dovish Monetary Policy
News
Oil

WTI crude oil is a benchmark for U.S. oil prices and is one of the most widely traded energy commodities globally. It is primarily produced in the United States, and its price is influenced by a wide range of factors, including geopolitical events, global oil production levels, and OPEC policies. WTI is sensitive to global economic growth, as higher demand for energy typically pushes prices up, while recessions or energy efficiency innovations can drive prices down. Supply-demand imbalances are crucial in determining WTI’s price, with factors like natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes) or production cuts by oil-producing nations affecting the supply side. WTI is highly correlated with other crude oil prices like Brent Crude, though it typically trades at a slight discount due to its higher sulfur content and location.

United States Dollar

The US Dollar (USD) is the most widely traded currency in the world and the primary reserve currency. It is the official currency of the United States and is often seen as the global standard for trade and investment. The USD’s price is influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, and interest rates. Its dominance in global trade makes it highly correlated with other major currencies, especially the Euro and Japanese Yen. Key impact parameters for the USD include US economic growth (GDP), job market conditions, consumer spending, and the Fed’s policy decisions. As a safe-haven currency, the USD often rises during periods of global risk aversion. Its price is also sensitive to geopolitical events, such as US government policy changes and international conflicts.

WTI Analysis WTI Analysis

Introduction

WTI is one of the most widely traded oil benchmarks and represents crude oil extracted from the United States. It is influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and production levels, particularly in major oil-producing countries like the US, OPEC members, and Russia. WTI prices are significantly impacted by US inventory data (particularly the weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration), OPEC production cuts or increases, and natural disasters that affect oil infrastructure. WTI is also closely correlated with the US Dollar; when the dollar strengthens, oil becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can lead to a decline in prices.


Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The policy is with the current Interest rate 0%. Latest change was 0%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 4.5% by latest change, Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of WTI is Weak Bearish and for the USD is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases. and Fundamental Score for USD is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-ON. The Australian dollar and New Zealand Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -2.76% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.57% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.38% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.76%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.32%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.7% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.82% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.26%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.


Market Sentiment and Positioning

WTI COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Crude Oil WTI is 146370 included 311402 long, 165032 short and 6775 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought WTI for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 6775 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.


USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is 1828 included 15722 long, 13894 short and -1085 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought USD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -1085 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.


Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the WTI with 100% 0% ratio. 3 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability WTI prices may decrease.


Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The WTI pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 57.499.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 68.939. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.

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  Please note that trade offers are intended solely for educational purposes

Our forecasts, signals, and trade opportunities are provided to help you stay informed, but we do not take responsibility for any potential losses.
Additionally, we do not offer financial or investment advice in this section of the website.

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