WTI Analysis

Introduction

WTI is one of the most widely traded oil benchmarks and represents crude oil extracted from the United States. It is influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and production levels, particularly in major oil-producing countries like the US, OPEC members, and Russia. WTI prices are significantly impacted by US inventory data (particularly the weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration), OPEC production cuts or increases, and natural disasters that affect oil infrastructure. WTI is also closely correlated with the US Dollar; when the dollar strengthens, oil becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can lead to a decline in prices.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The policy is with the current Interest rate 0%. Latest change was 0%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 4.5% by latest change, Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of WTI is Weak Bearish and for the USD is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Weak Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases. and Fundamental Score for USD is -3. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London & New York", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-ON. The Australian dollar and New Zealand Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Switzerland Frank are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -2.76% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.57% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.38% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.76%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.32%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.7% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.82% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has lost -0.26%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

WTI COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Crude Oil WTI is 146370 included 311402 long, 165032 short and 6775 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought WTI for higher prices in long-term.
Last week 6775 repositioning Indicates that they are optimistic about higher prices in mid-term.

USD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is 1828 included 15722 long, 13894 short and -1085 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bullish view on this asset and bought USD for higher prices in long-term.
Last week -1085 repositioning Indicates closing positions, short-term profit-taking, or a general pessimism about prices.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the WTI with 100% 0% ratio. 3 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability WTI prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The WTI pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 57.499.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 68.939. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.