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  • 4.5Interest Rate
  • 0.1Inflation Rate MoM
  • 3.2Inflation Expectations
  • 0Retail Sales MoM
  • 0GDP Growth Rate
  • GDP m/m
  • 52.9Manufacturing PMI
  • 52.9Services PMI
  • 4.1Unemployment Rate

Day Trading

Short Term/Scalp Opportunity

Waiting for confirmations

Swing Trading

Long Term Opportunity


Long at major support areas.
✅ Fundamental Bias is Bullish  
✅ Forecast is Bearish  
✅ Trend is Buy
Dynamic supports at S3 (2397.17) and S4 (2397.17) could be apropos entries

Market Risk Sentiment
ADS
ADS
Intraday performance
Last update: 2025-07-08 10:28
Intraday performance - Session history
Last update: 2025-07-08 10:28
Technical Data:
R1: S1:
R2: S2:
R3: S3:
R4: S4:

Daily:

H1:

M30:

M5:

Signal

Buy

Buy

Buy

Buy

waiting...

100 %
Pivot Points

Pivot: 2547.95

S1: 2493.51

S2: 2455.36

S3: 2400.92

R1: 2586.10

R2: 2640.54

R3: 2678.69

Retail traders Money flow: Last update: 2025-07-08 10:16

ETHUSD, Retail traders Sentiment

ETHUSD, Retails Liquidity history

Commitments of Traders (COT): latest CFTC report: 2025-07-01

>U.S. Dollar Index

Net Positions:

Previous -6,034

Current -4,282

Changes +1752 29%

Net Positions:

Previous 0

Current 0

Changes + %
NET Change History ETH
NET Change History USD
Large Speculators vs price history (Hot money Tracking)
AI forecast
Forecast:

Licensed User access

0%
0%
Base: ** ETH **

Bonds: 0 , chg: 0 (0%)

 

 

Fundamental Bias: Bullish Weak

Fundamental Score:

COT POS: ETH: -4282 pos, last change: 29% (1752 contracts)

Retail Short pos ratio: 12%

Retail trader Sell position: 150

Retail trader Sell volume: 56.46 lot

Distance to Resistance R4 (2698.41): 137.10

Quote: USD

Interest rate: 4.5%

Bonds, U.S. 10Y: 4.418 , chg: 0.023 (0.520%)

 

 

Fundamental Bias: Bearish Moderate

Fundamental Score: 1

 

Retail Long pos ratio: 88%

Retail trader Long position: 853

Retail trader Buy volume: 403.58 lot

Distance to Support S4 (2397.17): 164.14

Fundamental Bias:

Bullish Weak

rate: 0%

Monetary Policy: Last change: 0


Bearish Moderate

Federal Reserve (FED) rate: 4.5%

Monetary Policy: Dovish Last change: Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp)

ETH Calendar
USD Calendar

Economic compare

  • 4.5Interest Rate
  • 2.4CPI y/y
  • 0.1Inflation Rate MoM
  • 2.6Producer Prices Change
  • 0.1Core Inflation Rate MoM
  • 321Consumer Price Index CPI
  • 3.2Inflation Expectations
  • 0Retail Sales MoM
  • 0.1Core Producer Prices MoM
  • 0GDP Growth Rate
  • GDP m/m
  • 52.9Manufacturing PMI
  • 52.9Services PMI
  • 50.8Non Manufacturing PMI
  • 4.1Unemployment Rate
  • 59.7Employment Rate
  • 233Initial Jobless Claims
  • 147Non Farm Payrolls
  • 0.2Average Hourly Earnings
  • 0ADP Employment Change
  • 0Balance of Trade
  • 60.7Consumer Confidence
  • Government Bond 10Y
  • 4TOTAL SCORE
** ETH **USD:

Bullish points

Bullish points

Bearish points

Bearish points

  • Dovish Monetary Policy
News
Ethereum

Ethereum is a decentralized blockchain platform that supports smart contracts and decentralized applications (dApps). Its native cryptocurrency, Ether (ETH), is used to pay for transactions and computational services on the Ethereum network. While Ethereum’s price is influenced by general cryptocurrency market trends, it has unique drivers tied to its platform's development and usage. Major factors include network upgrades, the growth of decentralized finance (DeFi), and the increasing use of NFTs (non-fungible tokens) built on Ethereum's blockchain. Ethereum has a relatively high correlation with Bitcoin, as both are highly sensitive to market sentiment and regulatory developments. However, its price can also be influenced by technical developments, such as the shift to Ethereum 2.0, which aims to improve scalability and energy efficiency. Ethereum’s price drivers are unique in that they encompass both traditional supply and demand dynamics as well as the growth and technological evolution of the broader blockchain space.

United States Dollar

The US Dollar (USD) is the most widely traded currency in the world and the primary reserve currency. It is the official currency of the United States and is often seen as the global standard for trade and investment. The USD’s price is influenced by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, inflation levels, and interest rates. Its dominance in global trade makes it highly correlated with other major currencies, especially the Euro and Japanese Yen. Key impact parameters for the USD include US economic growth (GDP), job market conditions, consumer spending, and the Fed’s policy decisions. As a safe-haven currency, the USD often rises during periods of global risk aversion. Its price is also sensitive to geopolitical events, such as US government policy changes and international conflicts.

ETHUSD Analysis ETHUSD Analysis

Introduction

ETH/USD (Ethereum/US Dollar) Introduction ETH/USD represents the exchange rate between Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, and the US Dollar (USD). Ethereum, created by Vitalik Buterin in 2015, is a decentralized platform that allows for the development and execution of smart contracts and decentralized applications (dApps). The native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network is Ether (ETH), and it plays a central role in powering these smart contracts. Important Points Ethereum is not just a digital currency but also a global decentralized computing platform. While Bitcoin is primarily seen as a store of value, Ethereum is known for its ability to facilitate decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, NFTs (non-fungible tokens), and more. ETH/USD is influenced by factors related to Ethereum’s network, its developments, and its role in the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Correlations ETH/USD often moves in tandem with BTC/USD, as Bitcoin and Ethereum are the two dominant players in the cryptocurrency market. However, ETH/USD can also have a more pronounced response to technological developments related to Ethereum, such as network upgrades or changes in gas fees. Ethereum’s price is also sensitive to the DeFi ecosystem, as its blockchain hosts many of these projects, and a surge in DeFi activity often leads to increased demand for ETH. Impact Parameters Key factors influencing the price of ETH/USD include: Ethereum Network Upgrades: Changes to Ethereum’s network, such as the transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) with Ethereum 2.0, can significantly affect ETH’s price. These upgrades aim to improve scalability, security, and energy efficiency. Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Ethereum is the backbone of many DeFi applications. The growth or contraction of the DeFi sector can have a direct impact on demand for Ether, as it is often used as collateral within these platforms. NFT Market Activity: Ethereum’s involvement in the booming NFT market also impacts its price. As more NFTs are minted and traded on the Ethereum blockchain, demand for ETH can increase due to transaction fees (gas fees). Market Sentiment: Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s price is heavily influenced by market sentiment, with bullish trends in the crypto market typically lifting ETH’s price alongside BTC. Regulatory News: As with other cryptocurrencies, ETH/USD is subject to regulatory news and developments, such as government bans, new regulations, or acceptance in various jurisdictions. Price Drivers Network Demand: The price of ETH is driven by the demand for transactions and smart contract executions on the Ethereum network. As the network sees increased use, the demand for ETH increases. Ethereum 2.0 Upgrade: The transition from Ethereum’s original PoW consensus mechanism to the more scalable PoS mechanism is a major long-term driver for ETH. These upgrades aim to reduce gas fees and improve transaction speed, increasing Ethereum’s utility and long-term growth potential. Deflationary Mechanisms (EIP-1559): Ethereum’s EIP-1559 upgrade introduced a deflationary aspect to the network, where a portion of the transaction fees (gas fees) is burned. This reduces the overall supply of ETH and creates upward pressure on its price. Institutional Adoption: Similar to Bitcoin, institutional investment can drive significant price increases. Major financial institutions exploring or adopting Ethereum-based projects or assets can lead to more demand for ETH. Global Economic Factors: Ethereum, as a part of the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, can benefit from periods of financial instability or low interest rates, as investors seek alternative assets to traditional fiat currencies.


Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The policy is with the current Interest rate 0%. Latest change was 0%.
On that side the Federal Reserve policy is Dovish and (FED) has set its interest rate to 4.5% by latest change, Dec 18, 2024 (-25bp).
(FED) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in USD. This tends to attract foreign capital into USD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of ETH is Weak Bullish and for the USD is Moderate Bearish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bullish bias for this asset and we anticipate long-term price increases. and Fundamental Score for USD is 1. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "London", Market risk sentiment is Classic Risk-ON. The Australian dollar and New Zealand Dollar recorded the strongest performance, while the Gold and Yen are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a -0.41% decrease against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been 0.11% up so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been -0.17% down as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has risen by 0.65%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has risen by 0.24%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.17% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced 0.13% rise so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.12%
Market risk sentiment is ON, This means Investors embrace risk, driving demand for riskier assets and higher-yielding currencies while safe-haven assets weaken.


Market Sentiment and Positioning

ETH COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >U.S. Dollar Index is -4282 included 16873 long, 21155 short and 1752 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold ETH for lower prices in long-term.
Last week 1752 repositioning Indicates closed positions and short-term profit-taking.


Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the ETHUSD with 88% 12% ratio. 853 long pos and 150 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability ETHUSD prices may decrease.


Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The ETHUSD pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 2397.17.
Technical trend is BUY, If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a good area to enter a long positions.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 2698.41. Technically, A break above this resistance could signal a shift in momentum, but need to get a confirmation in this area due to the reversal or correction potential.

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Risk Disclaimer
  Please note that trade offers are intended solely for educational purposes

Our forecasts, signals, and trade opportunities are provided to help you stay informed, but we do not take responsibility for any potential losses.
Additionally, we do not offer financial or investment advice in this section of the website.

Before engaging in foreign currency trading, its important to carefully consider your own investment goals, experience level, and risk tolerance.
We want to emphasize that we cannot be held liable for any loss or damage, including potential profit loss, that may result from using or relying on this information. Your decisions are ultimately your own, and we encourage you to approach trading with caution and awareness.

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