News/Event

Deutsche Bank strategists note that Friday’s mixed United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report led to a notable repricing of September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) odds, with futures-implied probability of a hike falling to 44%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains, in the mid-range of the 0.7000s against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with two-month highs of 0.7088 at hand. The Aussie is capitalising on the US Dollar’s weakness, as hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes wane.

Gold holds gains around $4,350, with two-month highs at $4,380 under pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) holds above $65,000 at the time of writing on Monday, after recovering more than 2% last week, with bulls finding support around the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). Strong spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) inflows point to renewed institutional demand.

The USD/CHF pair struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and remains on the back foot below the 0.8100 mark through the first half of the European session on Monday.

BNY’s Geoff Yu and David Tam expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged at 4.35%, noting that markets doubt its willingness to hike despite persistent inflation and robust labor and spending data.

The GBP/JPY cross catches aggressive bids at the start of a new week and builds on its strong recovery move from the vicinity of mid-209.00s, or the lowest level since early March touched last Monday.

The US Dollar (USD) edges up against its peers on Monday after a vertical decline on Friday. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.70.

The Euro (EUR) trades subduedly at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Monday. The EUR/USD pair edges down as the US Dollar rebounds after a significant fall on Friday.

USD/CHF inches higher after registering over 0.5% losses in the previous trading day, hovering around 0.8090 during the Asian hours on Monday.

The broader cryptocurrency market holds steady, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading near $65,000, above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $64,702. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) released the summary of opinions from its July meeting, with nearly half of the board members leaning hawkish.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from the July 30-31 monetary policy meeting, which showed a split between members wanting to hold rates to assess the impact of the last rate hike and others pushing to continue or accelerate tightening. Key findings noted below.

Standard Chartered’s Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate unchanged at the 27 August meeting, abandoning a previously projected hike.

US Treasury yields drop across the curve amid growing speculation that the Oman-Iran deal is about to be sealed, which has so far pushed energy prices lower, while investors also digest a “bad” Nonfarm Payrolls report in the US.

EUR/JPY trades on the back foot on Friday, easing away even as the Euro (EUR) posts solid gains against the US Dollar (USD). The Japanese currency surged suddenly near the start of the American session after a surprisingly weak United States (US) employment report.

ABN AMRO’s Chief Economist Nick Kounis highlights renewed US labour market weakness, with Nonfarm Payrolls falling and household employment data softening. He notes the unemployment rate declined as labour force participation dropped to multi-decade lows, signalling cyclical weakness.

USD/CHF edges lower on Friday, erasing most of the previous day’s gains as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following a downside surprise in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8080, down 0.53% on the day.

TD Securities strategists Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that strong discretionary and Asian buying is supporting Gold, even as CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) positioning has plateaued.

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch sees continued volatility in Brent as Strait of Hormuz negotiations remain unresolved and inventories tighten.

Silver (XAG/USD) jumps nearly 4% on Friday as buying accelerates following a decisive break above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $62. At the time of writing, the grey metal trades around $63.94 after briefly testing the $65 psychological mark.

The British Pound (GBP) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday after a disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report prompts traders to scale back bets on Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades around 1.3506, hovering near three-week highs.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that the US Dollar's (USD) current support from perceived hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy is likely to fade as markets reassess United States (US) rate expectations over coming quarters.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the July United States (US) non-farm payrolls to show resilient labor demand, with consensus around 80k jobs and unemployment steady at 4.2%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades slightly higher to near 0.7040 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday.

Gold (XAU/USD) resumes its bullish trend on Friday, after a brief consolidation on Thursday, to reach fresh three-week highs above $4,300, with bulls aiming for mid-June highs in the $4,380 area.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that the Czech National Bank (CNB) kept its policy rate at 3.75% and returned to a wait-and-see stance after June’s 25bp hike, despite still citing upside inflation risks.

Silver (XAG/USD) resumes its near-term bullish trend on Friday, after a brief hesitation on Thursday, reaching fresh six-week highs at $63.90, although it is still due to confirm the break of the resistance area at $63.30.

The Euro (EUR) is trading flat around 1.1520 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, following a mild pullback from three-week highs at 1.1560 and on track for a minor weekly decline.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, extends Thursday’s recovery move slightly to near $77.80 during the day. The Oil price underperformed in the last two weeks on hopes of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply.

Ethereum (ETH) continues to trade sideways, hovering around $1,901 on Friday, hinting at a potential breakout ahead. Meanwhile, steady Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) inflows and rising accumulation among large ETH holders suggest that bullish pressure could be building beneath the surface.

EUR/USD extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1520 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency pair faces downward pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gains strength, propelled by renewed safe-haven demand among global investors.

Ethereum (ETH) large holders have been accumulating the supply of retail investors in 2026.

Hyperliquid Research Collective (HRC) reported on Thursday broad growth across Hyperliquid's key operating metrics in Q2 despite a decline in revenue, as adoption of its HIP-3 ecosystem and HYPE token continued to accelerate.

The US Dollar (USD) posted gains against every major currency on Thursday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) up 0.26% near the 100.00 level as Oil rallied 3% on the reported Strait of Hormuz vessel ban, while Gold and Silver declined.

ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song flag renewed policy uncertainty for the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) after the surprise resignation of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) governor, just as sentiment toward Indonesian assets was improving.

Scotiabank’s team notes the Pound is fractionally weaker versus the Dollar, with fundamentals less supportive as yield spreads soften. However, sentiment is improving as markets fade earlier political concerns following PM Burnham’s arrival and stronger-than-expected construction PMI.

Some details of the Oman and Iran plan to manage the Strait of Hormuz revealed that ships belonging to the US, Israel and other “hostile” countries will be prohibited. 

Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a dramatic rebound, surging over 4% on Wednesday to move within striking distance of the $4,300/oz threshold.

Standard Chartered’s Christopher Graham analyzes recent United Kingdom (UK) polling, noting Labour has regained a lead over Reform UK and Conservatives after Andy Burnham became prime minister.

MUFG notes that USD/JPY remains well below pre-intervention levels. Japanese retail traders entered the episode with a record short position in the pair and likely covered those positions during the intervention-led decline, partially offsetting official yen purchases.

Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates its recent gains on Thursday after briefly climbing above $4,300 as the US Dollar (USD) steadies while traders await confirmation of a possible Iran-Oman agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,270, up 0.53% on the day.

The cryptocurrency market is somewhat lethargic on Thursday, with Bitcoin (BTC) approaching $65,000, Ethereum (ETH) holding above $1,900 while Ripple (XRP) trades under pressure around $1.05.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds onto two-day gains at around $62.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal trades firmly amid hopes of a further decline in oil prices.

The AUD/JPY cross attracts some sellers on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak and stalling this week's solid bounce move from its lowest level since late March.

Standard Chartered’s Nicholas Chia expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the cash rate at 4.35% at its 11 August meeting, with no further hikes this year. Q2 core inflation and short-term expectations have eased, while the labour market has softened.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight a sharp rebound in Gold as easing Middle East tensions weighed on Oil and US Treasury yields, softening the US Dollar.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, August 6:

The USD/CHF pair attracts some buyers near the 0.8060 region on Thursday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak and trade around the 0.8080-0.8085 region during the first half of the European session, up nearly 0.15% for the day.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that lower Oil prices can initially restrain the Euro (EUR) by reducing European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations.

The British Pound (GBP) trades marginally lower at around 1.3460 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.75 in the early European trading hours on Thursday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades 0.45% lower to near $74 during the early European trading session on Thursday, closer to its three-week low of $73.51 posted the previous day.

The GBP/USD pair drifts lower to near 1.3460 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. Conflicting rhetoric from the US and Iranian officials about a potential deal fuels market concerns, dragging the British Pound (GBP) lower against the US Dollar (USD).

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens almost flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair trades around 95.12 after rebounding from the fresh monthly low of 94.83 posted the previous day.

The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on this week's solid rebound from the vicinity of mid-109.00s, or a four-month low, and edges lower during the Asian session on Thursday.

Gold (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's blowout rally of over 4% and advances for the fourth straight session, rising to its highest level since June 18 during the Asian session on Thursday.

The USD/CAD pair remains on the back foot during the Asian session on Thursday, with bears now awaiting a break below the 1.4000 psychological mark before positioning for an extension of the previous day's pullback from a one-week top.

AUD/USD steadies after two days of gains, trading around 0.7060 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair moves little as the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains silent following the release of domestic Trade Balance data.

The GBP/USD pair is seen consolidating its gains recorded over the past two days and trading around the 1.3470 region during the Asian session on Thursday.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said on Thursday that tariffs have had a clear impact on inflation, though she pointed to early signs that effect is beginning to ease.

Gold (XAU/USD) price surges to its highest level in nearly seven weeks, gaining nearly 3.80% on Wednesday as the Greenback loses ground and US Treasury yields fail to gain traction. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,232, its highest level since June 18, after bouncing off daily lows of $4,065.

Silver (XAG/USD) jumps more than 4% on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected US ADP employment data and easing energy-driven inflation prompt traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $62.30, near its highest level in a month.

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu and Galvin Chia judge the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) August policy outcome as neutral for the Indian Rupee (INR). They highlight fewer comments on INR and flows, but recall Governor Malhotra’s view that INR is not undervalued.

TD Securities strategists see the recent intervention-driven USD/JPY decline as cyclical rather than regime-changing. They expect December as the more likely timing for the next Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike and doubt sustained joint US‑Japan intervention support.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Dollar is mixed as global equities rise and Oil stabilizes. Haddad argues the USD rally from May has likely ended, with US Dollar Index (DXY) expected to consolidate in a 96.00–100.00 range.

Gold (XAU/USD) climbs to a one-month high on Wednesday as renewed optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sends Oil prices lower. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,155, up nearly 1.90% on the day.

The US Dollar (USD) reflects a subdued performance against its peers ahead of the United States (US) ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July, which will be published in the North American session.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near $64,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, buoyed by a marginal improvement in crypto sentiment amid growing optimism that the United States (US) and Iran could potentially reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz this week.

Gold (XAU/USD) has accelerated its recovery on Wednesday, favoured by a softer US Dollar as lower Oil prices and downbeat US macroeconomic data cooled market expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes on Tuesday.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) at around 0.7050 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair struggles for a direction as investors await the United States (US) ADP Employment Change data for July, which will be published at 12:15 GMT.

The British Pound (GBP) claws back its early losses against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and edges higher to near 212.25 during the European trading session on Wednesday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $74.50 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. WTI declines on mixed US-Iran messages.

The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, trading at 0.8573 at the time of writing and holding gains from the last two days after bouncing from the 0.8540 area on Friday.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that the recent historic intervention in USD/JPY, powered by US Treasury participation, may not secure a lasting Japanese Yen (JPY) recovery.

The GBP/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.3455 during the early European session on Wednesday, bolstered by softer US economic data and cooling US-Iran tensions. Traders brace for the US ADP Employment and ISM Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) reports, which are due on Wednesday.

The Euro (EUR) trades marginally higher at around 1.1536 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price falls after paring its daily gains, trading around $73.80 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Wednesday, “specific monetary policy means are up to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to decide.”

GBP/USD edges lower after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 1.3450 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price appreciates after registering over 5% losses in the previous day, trading around $75.00 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there has been progress made in discussions with Iran and Oman on ‌getting ‌more ships through ‌the Strait of Hormuz but no final deal has been achieved, the Guardian reported on Tuesday.

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index extends its negative streak to 78 consecutive days on Tuesday, the longest on record. This reading comes amid the ongoing bearish trend, which has seen Bitcoin (BTC) drop by almost 50% from its record high to trade around $64,000.

HSBC strategists discuss the US Dollar (USD) reaction to the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates at 3.50-3.75% despite some dissent for a hike.

Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the US Dollar index has fallen back below 100.00 following last week’s FOMC meeting, as the Fed left rates on hold and Chair Kevin Warsh offered less hawkish guidance.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview on Tuesday that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday. He added that he expects Energy prices to "settle back down".

The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, reaching session highs above 1.3440 after finding support at the 1.3420 area earlier on the day.

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaims the $64,000 mark on Tuesday after a mild correction in the previous session.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur writes that despite South Africa’s reasonable recent performance under pressure from the Iran conflict, the central bank’s July decision to leave its key rate unchanged was surprising.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Japanese Yen has weakened modestly in Asia, with USD/JPY near its 200‑day moving average around 158.00 after recent joint intervention by Japan and the US.

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky says Central and Eastern European markets opened positively, with rates markets outpricing hikes while FX stayed sidelined.

The Euro (EUR) trades practically flat, a few pips below 0.8570 against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, holding moderate gains after Monday's bounce from last week's lows at 0.8542.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke discusses how new Fed Chair Warsh may be relying on markets to tighten financing conditions instead of raising rates, leaving the Dollar exposed to data-driven volatility.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 4:

Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its recovery on Tuesday, reaching session highs above $59.00 at the time of writing, after bouncing from the $56.50 area on Monday.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin H. Nasser said during the European trading session on Tuesday that the ongoing geopolitical crisis continues to aggravate the biggest supply shock in history.

USD/CHF moves little after two days of gains, trading around 0.8100 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair may appreciate further as the Swiss Franc (CHF) faces headwinds from easing domestic inflation.

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat at around 95.33 against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Tuesday. The Indian currency is expected to trade sideways as investors await the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

The EUR/USD pair holds steady around 1.1505 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Markets remain cautious ahead of the crucial US July jobs report, which is due later this week. 

The NZD/USD pair loses traction to near 0.5870 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday, pressured by stronger US economic data and safe-haven flows. Traders brace for New Zealand’s employment report, which will be published later on Wednesday. 

The GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3425 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks drives traders toward a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – edges higher during the Asian session on Tuesday and looks to build on the overnight bounce following an intraday slump to levels below mid-$77.00s.

Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) recovers some ground, even though hostilities in the Middle East paused at the request of Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, according to US President Donald Trump. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,037, down 0.12%.

The cryptocurrency market shows broad signs of recovery, with Bitcoin (BTC) edging higher above $63,000 on Monday. This follows a sudden correction to the daily low of $62,300, which aligns with persistent risk-off sentiment.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $78.45 at the time of writing on Monday, down 7.76% on the day, as investors unwind the geopolitical risk premium following announcements of a potential agreement between the United States (US) and Iran.

AUD/USD extends its pullback toward the 0.6990 area during Monday's American session after stronger-than-expected United States (US) manufacturing data reinforced the US Dollar (USD).

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $57.20 at the time of writing on Monday, down 0.73% on the day, after a strong US manufacturing report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a restrictive monetary policy.

EUR/USD trades in a narrow range on Monday as traders await clarity on US-Iran negotiations, while signs of stabilization in the US Dollar following the recent intervention-led weakness cap the Euro’s upside.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports USD/JPY plunged in Tokyo after confirmed joint US-Japan intervention to stop the Japanese Yen’s slide, with officials warning they may act again.

ING’s Chris Turner highlights rare joint US-Japan FX intervention, with Washington participating via the Fed and Japan using the FIMA repo facility to raise Dollars against Treasuries.

Rabobank's Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton discusses recurring Middle East tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on Oil and Brent.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trade 7.4% lower at around $78.50 during the European trading session on Monday. The Oil price holds onto its opening losses, driven by the announcement of a ceasefire 2.0 between the United States (US) and Iran.

Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week on a positive note, although buyers lack conviction as markets weigh conflicting US-Iran headlines and look ahead to US employment data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook.

Geoff Yu at BNY argues that the lack of further Fed tightening has eased global financial conditions and partially offset European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, but European inflation dynamics remain distinct from the U.S.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground after three days of gains and trading around 101.50 during the Asian session on Tuesday.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that despite sizeable joint FX intervention in USD/JPY and lower Oil prices, the US Dollar (USD) is not broadly weaker as markets still price a Federal Reserve (Fed) hike in September.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades lower against its major currency peers at the start of the week. The USD/CHF pair rises 0.15% to near 0.8082 as a market-sentiment revival following the announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East has diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, August 3:

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens strongly against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR extends its losing streak for the third trading day, is down 0.25% to near 95.15, the lowest level seen in over three weeks.

The NZD/USD pair holds positive ground near 0.5890 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains firm despite the downbeat Chinese economic data.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers to around $4,060 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges higher amid hopes of a breakthrough between the United States (US) and Iran after reports that US President Donald Trump has held off Iran strikes. 

The USD/JPY pair tumbles to near 155.45, the lowest since May 6, during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracts some buyers following reports of more joint intervention by the United States (US) and Japan. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price gains ground after opening with a bearish gap, remaining nearly 7% down to trade around $79.30 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday to boost oil production by 188,000 barrels a day (bpd) from September, against a backdrop of disruption caused by the Mideast war.

Gold price tumbles nearly 1.50% on Friday as the US Dollar recovers some ground after Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange markets a day ago, driving the Greenback to a 30-day low before recovering, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The XAU/USD trades at $4,045.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the back foot on Friday as rising US Treasury yields outweigh support from a weaker US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $57.50, down 2% on the day and on track to close July in negative territory.

USD/CHF trims part of its earlier gains on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to regain momentum following Thursday’s sharp sell-off, which was driven by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities to curb excessive weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY).

USD/JPY trades sharply lower near the 159.50 area on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens following intervention by Japanese authorities and a relatively hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy announcement.

The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as short-covering in the Greenback following the previous day’s sharp sell-off pushes EUR/USD back below 1.1500. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1488, easing from the six-week high of 1.1537 touched on Thursday.

TD Securities strategists highlight that Euro area Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rose to 2.9% y/y in July, with core inflation at 2.5% and services inflation at 3.3%, indicating only limited evidence of meaningful second-round effects.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that the Japanese Yen (JPY) entered the latest Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision and suspected intervention with weak flow momentum and lighter positioning, even as investors remained net long JPY and net short USD/JPY.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1.7% to near $58.00 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal continues to decline throughout the day as United States (US) Treasury Yields have bounced back amid fears that inflationary pressures will remain elevated.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar stabilized after a sharp sell-off linked to suspected USD/JPY intervention, but argues the broader USD rally since May has likely ended, with US Dollar Index (DXY) expected to move back into a 96.00–100.00 range.

TD Securities strategists expect Canadian real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to rise by 0.2% m/m in May, exceeding the flash estimate and extending April’s 0.5% gain. They highlight balanced growth across goods and services, with manufacturing, existing home sales and retail trade all contributing.

MUFG analysts use a textual sentiment framework on the latest Bank of England (BoE) decision, finding a hawkish hold in Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member contributions but a more balanced tone from Governor Bailey’s press conference.

The British Pound (GBP) faces roadblocks in extending the early recovery against the Japanese Yen (JPY) above 216.33 during the European trading session on Friday.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 31:

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart note that the Japanese Yen surged as USD/JPY dropped from 163.00 to 158.00, in a move they attribute to probable Ministry of Finance intervention during New York trading.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) ticks lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, but remains steady near eight-week highs at 0.5885, with downside attempts contained above a previous resistance area at 0.5860 so far.

The Euro (EUR) nudges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, but remains near six-week highs, holding well above 1.1500 so far, on track for a 1.3% rally this week, its best weekly performance in nearly four months.

The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3445 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Heightened Middle East tensions and rising global oil prices provide some support to a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP).

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1500 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as escalating tensions in the Middle East weigh on riskier assets. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) is down almost 1% to near $58.40 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds slightly, attempting to snap a three-day losing streak.

AUD/USD inches lower after registering over 1% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7020 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair remains subdued following the release of disappointing Chinese Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data.

The EUR/ USD pair loses ground to near 1.1515 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the US Dollar (USD) amid risk-off sentiment and fears of wider war in the Middle East.

Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said on Friday that he is in close contact with relevant authorities on foreign exchange, adding that the officials are always prepared to take suitable measures.

US President Donald Trump claimed his Board of Peace has reached an “historic agreement for the complete disarmament of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza,”the Guardian reported on Friday.

RaboResearch highlights Oil as the dominant input for UK monetary policy. The Bank of England’s central forecast assumes Oil prices fall from $76 to around $71, with inflation peaking near 3.2%, but Brent already trades above $90.

Gold price advances some 0.92% on Thursday after the US Dollar drops following a suspected intervention in the foreign exchange markets, with the Japanese Yen hitting a near two-month high versus the Greenback. The XAU/USD trades at $4,100 after bouncing off the low of the day (LOD) at $4,028.

The cryptocurrency market continues to build momentum on Thursday as selling pressure subsides. Bitcoin (BTC) has notched three straight days of gains and is currently trading above $64,000, with bulls eyeing a potential breakout above the immediate $65,000 resistance.

AUD/JPY tumbles on Thursday as a sudden surge in the Japanese Yen (JPY) sweeps across Yen crosses, fuelling speculation that Japanese authorities intervened to support the currency after USD/JPY hit a 40-year high earlier this month.

TD Securities strategists explain that Gold has bounced after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left rates unchanged and Chair Warsh signaled tolerance for an inflation shock.

HSBC’s Jose Rasco and Michael Zervos note that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting, with a 9-3 split highlighting internal debate.

TD Securities FX strategist Howard Du highlights that GBP/USD initially rose 0.3% on the hawkish 6-3 BoE vote split, with Mann joining the hike camp. However, the rest of the committee appears comfortable holding rates given limited second-round effects.

BNY’s Geoff Yu reports that Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter described Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) as slightly softer than expected, mainly due to fuel prices, but stressed inflation remains above the 2–3% band.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey explains the decision to maintain the bank rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote split following the July monetary policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey explains the decision to maintain the bank rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote split following the July monetary policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports EUR/USD is consolidating after a rally driven by stronger-than-expected Eurozone Q2 GDP at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.

Societe Generale strategists analyzes- the Bank of England’s (BoE) upcoming meeting, expecting Bank Rate to remain at 3.75% with some hawkish dissent. They note easing inflation expectations and a loosening labour market, but also higher energy prices and government income support.

Rabobank Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses GBP/USD following the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) decision and ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting. She expects GBP/USD to trade around 1.32–1.33 over the next one to three months.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur expects the Bank of Japan to keep its overnight call rate unchanged, as fully priced by markets. The focus is on guidance, with inflation around 2% and leading indicators pointing higher.

Societe Generale’s Jan Groen reviews the July 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) outcome, noting the Federal Reserve (Fed) left the Fed funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% and signaled a cautious stance on inflation.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD) Thursday despite the unexpected improvement of Swiss leading indicators.

MUFG's Derek Halpenny notes that the British Pound (GBP) has been the strongest G10 currency after the US Dollar (USD) since the Middle East conflict began, with attention now on the Bank of England’s (BoE) July decision.

The NZD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.5810 during early European trading hours on Thursday, bolstered by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate hike bets.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that US real yields and the US Dollar (USD) fell after a confusing FOMC press conference, as markets sensed the Federal Reserve (Fed) may avoid further tightening.

Commerzbank’s FX Research team, including Charlie Lay and colleagues, notes that the Dollar Index fell and EUR/USD climbed after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but revealed a significant internal split.

The Euro (EUR) has eased from fresh four-week highs at 0.8585 against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, but maintains its bullish trend intact with price action standing above previous highs.

The Euro (EUR) trades marginally lower to near 1.1455 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Thursday.

The AUD/JPY cross declines to around 113.65 during the early European session on Thursday. The pair currently trades 0.65% lower on the week as the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising interest rates has fallen.

The AUD/USD pair turns lower following a modest Asian session uptick to the 0.6965 region on Thursday amid the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip-buying.

The US Dollar (USD) trades slightly positive in the Asian session on Thursday after a juggernaut fall the previous day. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% higher to near 100.92.

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) began launching strikes against Iran late Wednesday, retaliating against Iranian missile attacks on American forces in the region, the Guardian reported.

NZD/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.5810 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair climbs higher as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) receives support from a sharp rise in domestic business confidence.

AUD/USD inches higher after two days of losses, trading around 0.6960 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair may face potential downside pressure as the US Dollar (USD) could gain strength following a hawkish interest rate pause by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels are considering imposing fees on commercial ships sailing through the southern Red Sea, Reuters reported on Wednesday. This development came a week after the Houthi declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia.

Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to around $4,095 during the early Asian session on Thursday.

Silver price clings to gains on Wednesday late in the North American session, as the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged, which, instead of strengthening the Dollar, weakened it, while US Treasury yields spiked. The XAG/USD trades at $57.17, barely unchanged.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the decision carried a distinctly hawkish edge as three officials voted for an immediate 25-basis-point increase.

Ethereum (ETH) climbed above $1,900 on Wednesday following the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%.

The shared currency surged after the Federal Reserve kept rates steady, by a 9 to 3 vote, with three dissenters who supported a 25-basis-point rate hike. The EUR/USD trades volatily above 1.1420, up 0.28%. 

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that GBP/USD is flat around 1.33, supported by stronger United Kingdom (UK) lending data and stabilizing Bank of England (BoE) expectations. They stress that UK fiscal narratives remain important for sentiment toward government debt.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades lower near the $4,003 area on Wednesday, extending its recent decline as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that markets face a genuinely live Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, with futures implying about a 35% chance of a hike and a hold still the base case.

The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday, another pivotal meeting for markets to gauge the stance of policymakers as they assess how rising crude Oil prices could impact the inflation outlook.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX trades 6% higher on the day, slightly above $83.00 during the European trading session on Wednesday.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses how the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) decisions could shape USD/JPY, noting that Fed Chair Warsh’s stance on forward guidance adds uncertainty.

The US Dollar (USD) stands at a critical juncture as financial markets prepare for the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) upcoming interest rate announcement.

Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates above $4,000 on Wednesday, as price action remains choppy amid growing caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement, while the war in the Middle East intensifies again after a brief lull.

The Euro (EUR) holds marginal gains against the US Dollar on Wednesday after finding some support in the mid-range of the 1.1300s earlier this week but remains unable to find acceptance above 1.1400.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $57.92 per troy ounce, up 1.36% from the $57.14 it cost on Tuesday.

The British Pound (GBP) is marginally higher at around 1.3300 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair edges up as the US Dollar ticks lower ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.

DBS Bank’s Philip Wee notes that Dollar bulls have built substantial long USD positions ahead of the FOMC, encouraged by Brent’s sharp rebound and expectations of a surprise rate hike by Chairman Kevin Warsh.

The US Dollar (USD) trades marginally lower in the European trade on Wednesday, reflecting caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that INR faces strong selling pressure from a rebalancing perspective, as Indian bonds have outperformed major peers. With INR flows broadly flat, FX exposure has risen and investors are advised to keep hedging elevated after strong duration gains.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to deliver a hawkish hold, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping rates unchanged while stressing elevated inflation risks. He notes softer recent US data but highlights that markets still price some probability of a July hike.

UOB strategists report that Oil prices initially fell sharply as the United States (US) military campaign against Iran remained paused, with WTI dropping to USD 79.26 and Brent to USD 84.10.

ING’s Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey expect the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate at 1.00% on 31 July, with any modestly hawkish shift seen as unlikely to materially boost the Yen or change the USD/JPY trajectory.

The NZD/USD pair struggles to build on the overnight bounce from the 0.5860 horizontal support and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session on Wednesday.

The broader cryptocurrency market maintains risk-off sentiment ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. Bitcoin (BTC) holds above $63,000 on Wednesday, while Bittensor (TAO) and Cardano (ADA) sustain gains from the previous day.