AUDJPY Analysis

Introduction

The AUD/JPY reflects the relationship between the commodity-driven Australian economy and Japan’s export-heavy economy. This pair is affected by risk sentiment, with the AUD benefiting in times of economic expansion, while the JPY strengthens in times of global uncertainty. The pair’s movements are influenced by global commodity prices and economic data from both Australia and Japan.

Fundamentals and Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia policy is Hawkish with the (RBA) current Interest rate 4.35%. Latest change was May 05, 2026 (25bp)%.
On that side the Bank of Japan policy is Hawkish and (BOJ) has set its interest rate to 1% by latest change, Jun 16, 2026 (25bp).
(RBA) Higher interest rates generally lead to higher returns on investments denominated in AUD. This tends to attract foreign capital into AUD assets.

Based on the economic and macro fundamental data, The Fundamental Bias of AUD is Moderate Bearish and for the JPY is Weak Bullish.
Ziwox considering Moderate Bearish bias for this asset and we expect prices to decline in the long-term.
mid-term Fundamental Score for AUD is 3. and Fundamental Score for JPY is 8. So, base on the Fundamental Score, we predict mid-term downside price movement.

Market Overview & Performance

In the current trading session, "Sydney", Market risk sentiment is Risk-OFF. The Gold and British pound recorded the strongest performance, while the New Zealand Dollar and EUR are weakest so far.

Currencies performance vs US dollar "USD"
Gold "XAU", recorded a 1.07% increase against us dollar.
Euro "EUR", performance has been -0.31% down so far
Pond "GBP", performance has been 0.28% up as of now
Australian dollar "AUD", has dropped by -0.02%
New Zealand dollar "NZD", has dropped by -0.38%
Japanese YEN "JPY", experienced -0.08% fall
Swiss franc "CHF", experienced -0.08% fall so far
Canadian dollar "CAD", has gained 0.09%
Due to the market risk sentiment, AUDJPY price reduction is likely. Becasue investors become risk-averse from AUD, seeking safety amid uncertainty or market turmoil, leading to a sell-off in riskier assets and a flight to safe havens like the USD, JPY, and gold. Currencies tied to riskier economies (e.g., AUD, NZD) tend to weaken.

Market Sentiment and Positioning

AUD COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Australian Dollar is -4125 included 84342 long, 88467 short and -22285 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold AUD for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -22285 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

JPY COT (Commitments of Traders):

Institutions Net Position on >Japanese Yen is -150132 included 117375 long, 267507 short and -4314 position changed from last week.
So they mainly have a bearish view on this asset and sold JPY for lower prices in long-term.
Last week -4314 repositioning Indicates more sell positions and price pressure in short-term.

Retail Traders:

Crowd traders or Retail traders are bullish on the AUDJPY with 78% 22% ratio. 0 long pos and 0 short position.
We generally adopt a contrarian approach towards crowd sentiment and we give probability AUDJPY prices may decrease.

Technical Levels and Support/Resistance

The AUDJPY pair is approaching a critical technical support level near 112.175.
Technical trend is Sell, So If the pair continues to weaken, this support could become a significant area to watch for potential reversal or consolidation.
On the upside, there is key resistance near 114.156. Technically, If the pair continues to the upside, this resistance level could become a significant area to watch for sell entery potential.